Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) agreed to acquire Oclaro, Inc. (OCLR) in a cash and stock deal valued at $9.99 per share or about $1.8 billion, the companies announced on Monday.
The deal, unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both companies, will see Oclaro stockholders be entitled to receive $5.60 in cash and 0.0636 of a share of Lumentum common stock, subject to the terms of the definitive agreement.
The deal values Oclaro at $9.99 per share, based on the closing price of Lumentum's stock on March 9, 2018, of $68.98. This represents a premium of 27 percent to Oclaro's closing price on March 9, 2018. Oclaro stockholders are expected to own about 16 percent of the combined company at closing.
The deal is expected to close in the second half of calendar 2018, subject to approval by Oclaro's stockholders, antitrust regulatory approval in the US and China, and other customary closing conditions.
http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/lumentum-holdings-to-acquire-oclaro-in-1-8-bln-cash-stock-deal-quick-facts-1018617336
FTC clears Lumentum's deal for Oclaro(Apr. 5, 2018)
根据合约,收购时,每股OCLR可换0.0636股LITE+5.6 现金。等式POCLR=0.0636 PLITE+5.6
套利的基本思想是,哪里有价格不对等,哪里就有套利机会。于是有了这个线性关系图。任意时间,LITE和OCLR的股价不符合以上关系,就有机会。假如LITE股价60,那么OCLR的股价应当为9.4。然而,OCLR现在股价是8.2.
由此推出最基本策略:
策略1
Buy 300 OCLR @ 8.2,cost 2460
Short 19 LITE@60 (300*0.0636=19.08), cost -1140
实际支出 1320
收购完成时,你手中的300股OCLR会转成19股LITE,另送 300*5.6=1680 现金。每300股OCLR你赚360.(潜在收益有这么多,可以买一堆期权了……)
Scenario analysis
1 收购失败,包括OCLR股东投反对票
OCLR股价下跌,LITE股价上升,对你是极端不利的。对此,你可以每股花0.25买个June put@7,如果对LITE不放心,就再买个call。
2 LITE被更大的鱼兼并
LITE股价上升,然而LITE还是会吃下OCLR,等式依旧成立。你还是赚360.
3 OCLR被更高出价方抢走
OCLR上涨。LITE可能涨,也可能跌。但是肯定OCLR的收购价要比按LITE算出来的更高,你只会赚得更多。
用期权实现
未完待续。(作者:美股马甲 来源:雪球)